Immigration - XWiki

= Immigration and the Fiscal Burden on the Dutch Welfare State =

The 2023 report //Borderless Welfare State// presents a comprehensive analysis of immigration's impact on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, immigration—including the second generation—incurred a net fiscal cost of approximately €400 billion. Projections indicate that, if current patterns continue, this figure could exceed €1 trillion by 2040.

4

5

This cost arises from increased per capita spending on education, healthcare, social security, and justice services for immigrants, combined with lower average tax contributions. In 2016 alone, the net fiscal cost of immigration peaked at €32 billion.

6

7

{{expandable summary="Study: Borderless Welfare State – The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the Netherlands"}}

8

**Source:** *Demo-Demo Publisher (Netherlands)*

9

**Date of Publication:** *2023*

10

**Author(s):** *Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog, Gerrit Kreffer*

11

**Title:** *"Borderless Welfare State: Immigration and the Sustainability of Dutch Public Finances"*

12

**DOI:** N/A

13

**Subject Matter:** *Immigration policy, fiscal sustainability, welfare state, demographic projections*

14

15

16

1. **Total Net Cost (1995–2019):** €400 billion

17

2. **Projected Cost by 2040:** Exceeds €1 trillion if trends continue

18

3. **Annual Fiscal Cost in 2016:** €32 billion

19

4. **Second Generation Still Net Negative:** Despite education improvements

20

5. **Cito Score Correlation:** +€20,000 per 1-point increase

1. **By Immigration Motive:**

25

26

Only labour migration yields positive fiscal returns. Other categories—study, family, asylum—are net burdens.

27

28

(% id="immigrationMotive" %)

29

30

|Estimate A|125000|-75000|-275000|-475000|

31

|Estimate B|125000|-75000|-275000|-475000|

32

33

{{chart source="xdom" type="bar3D" params="table:immigrationMotive;range:B2-E3;series:columns;

34

legendVisible:true;

35

plotBorderVisible:false;

36

backgroundColor:FFFFFF;

37

plotBackgroundColor:F9F9F9;

38

borderColor:FFFFFF;

39

colors=4E79A7,F28E2B,E15759,76B7B2" title="Fiscal Impact by Immigration Motive (3D View)" width="800" height="360"}}{{/chart}}

40

41

2. **By Region of Origin:**

42

43

Western migrants contribute marginally, while those from Islamic and African regions are highly negative. Japan/NA/Oceania immigrants are highly positive.

44

45

(% id="immigrationRegion" %)

46

47

|Estimate A|25000|-275000|200000|-550000|-600000|

48

|Estimate B|25000|-275000|200000|-550000|-600000|

49

50

{{chart source="xdom" type="bar3D" params="table:immigrationRegion;range:B2-F3;series:columns;

51