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Immigration and the Fiscal Burden on the Dutch Welfare State
The 2023 report Borderless Welfare State presents a comprehensive analysis of immigration's impact on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, immigration—including the second generation—incurred a net fiscal cost of approximately €400 billion. Projections indicate that, if current patterns continue, this figure could exceed €1 trillion by 2040.
This cost arises from increased per capita spending on education, healthcare, social security, and justice services for immigrants, combined with lower average tax contributions. In 2016 alone, the net fiscal cost of immigration peaked at €32 billion.
Source: *Demo-Demo Publisher (Netherlands)* Date of Publication: *2023* Author(s): *Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog, Gerrit Kreffer* Title: *"Borderless Welfare State: Immigration and the Sustainability of Dutch Public Finances"* DOI: N/A Subject Matter: *Immigration policy, fiscal sustainability, welfare state, demographic projections*
Total Net Cost (1995–2019): €400 billion 2. Projected Cost by 2040: Exceeds €1 trillion if trends continue 3. Annual Fiscal Cost in 2016: €32 billion 4. Second Generation Still Net Negative: Despite education improvements 5. Cito Score Correlation: +€20,000 per 1-point increase
Only labour migration yields positive fiscal returns. Other categories—study, family, asylum—are net burdens.
Motive
Labour
Study
Family
Asylum
Estimate A
125000
-75000
-275000
-475000
Estimate B
125000
-75000
-275000
-475000
2. By Region of Origin:
Western migrants contribute marginally, while those from Islamic and African regions are highly negative. Japan/NA/Oceania immigrants are highly positive.
Region
Western (avg.)
Non-Western (avg.)
Japan/NA/Oceania
Morocco
Horn of Africa/Sudan
Estimate A
25000
-275000
200000
-550000
-600000
Estimate B
25000
-275000
200000
-550000
-600000
3. Demographic Pressure:
Maintaining current dependency ratio would require a population of 100 million by 2100.
Strengths of the Study: - Includes second-generation effects - Clear cost modeling by motive & origin - Connects fiscal performance to educational scores
2. Limitations: - No cost breakdown by sector - Limited modeling of non-fiscal outcomes
3. Suggestions for Improvement: - Disaggregate scores by family structure - Add enforcement cost modeling - Compare against control group baselines
- Demonstrates the structural fiscal unsustainability of mass immigration - Highlights the value of selective, skilled migration with native integration - Useful for countering myths about second-generation economic assimilation
Compare these fiscal trends to France and Sweden 2. Estimate cultural cohesion loss alongside fiscal cost 3. Track welfare dependence by cohort length and generation