Wiki source code of Borderless Welfare State
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| 3 | # **BORDERLESS WELFARE STATE** | ||
| 4 | ## **The Consequences of Immigration for Public Finances** | ||
| 5 | ### *Key Findings and Analysis* | ||
| 6 | |||
| 7 | ### **1. Fiscal Impact of Immigration** | ||
| 8 | - **€400 billion**: Total net cost of immigration to the Netherlands from **1995-2019**, equivalent to the country's total natural gas revenues since the 1960s. | ||
| 9 | - **€27 billion annually**: Current estimated burden of immigration on Dutch public finances. | ||
| 10 | - Projected increase: From **€17 billion in 2016** to **€50 billion annually** if trends continue. | ||
| 11 | |||
| 12 | ### **2. Contribution by Immigration Type** | ||
| 13 | - **Labour Immigration**: **+€125,000** net contribution per person. | ||
| 14 | - **Study Immigration**: **-€75,000** net cost per person. | ||
| 15 | - **Family Immigration**: **-€275,000** net cost per person. | ||
| 16 | - **Asylum Immigration**: **-€475,000** net cost per person. | ||
| 17 | |||
| 18 | ### **3. Contribution by Region of Origin** | ||
| 19 | - **Western Immigrants**: **+€25,000** average contribution. | ||
| 20 | - **Non-Western Immigrants**: **-€275,000** per person on average. | ||
| 21 | - Highest fiscal costs: Immigrants from **Morocco and the Horn of Africa**, reaching up to **-€600,000** per person. | ||
| 22 | - Positive contributors: Immigrants from **Japan, North America, and Oceania**, averaging **+€200,000** per person. | ||
| 23 | |||
| 24 | ### **4. Long-Term Population Impact** | ||
| 25 | - Dutch population would need to grow to **100 million by 2100** to maintain the current welfare state dependency ratio. | ||
| 26 | - Immigration is **not a sustainable solution** to the aging population due to declining fertility rates among immigrant groups. | ||
| 27 | |||
| 28 | ### **5. Second-Generation Performance** | ||
| 29 | - Despite improvements, second-generation immigrants remain a **net fiscal burden** overall. | ||
| 30 | - **Cito test scores:** Each additional point increase correlates with an improvement of **€20,000** in lifetime fiscal contribution. | ||
| 31 | |||
| 32 | ### **6. Policy Recommendations** | ||
| 33 | - A **selective immigration policy** focusing on high-skilled workers could alleviate fiscal pressure. | ||
| 34 | - Without policy reform, the welfare system may become unsustainable. | ||
| 35 | |||
| 36 | --- | ||
| 37 | |||
| 38 | ### **Implications** | ||
| 39 | - Immigration trends pose a significant challenge to public finances. | ||
| 40 | - Policymakers must consider balancing social inclusivity with economic sustainability. | ||
| 41 | - Targeted immigration strategies could ensure positive fiscal contributions. | ||
| 42 | |||
| 43 | --- | ||
| 44 | |||
| 45 | ### **References** | ||
| 46 | - [Full Report PDF](/pdfs/borderless_welfare_state-2-1.pdf) | ||
| 47 | |||
| 48 | --- | ||
| 49 | |||
| 50 | ### **Authors:** | ||
| 51 | - Jan H. van de Beek | ||
| 52 | - Hans Roodenburg | ||
| 53 | - Joop Hartog | ||
| 54 | - Gerrit W. Kreffer | ||
| 55 | |||
| 56 | **Published by:** Demo-Demo Publisher, Zeist, Netherlands | ||
| 57 | |||
| 58 | **ISBN:** 9789083334820 |
