0 Votes

Wiki source code of Immigration

Version 19.1 by Ryan C on 2025/06/21 11:41

Show last authors
1 = Immigration and the Fiscal Burden on the Dutch Welfare State =
2
3 The 2023 report //Borderless Welfare State// presents a comprehensive analysis of immigration's impact on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, immigration—including the second generation—incurred a net fiscal cost of approximately €400 billion. Projections indicate that, if current patterns continue, this figure could exceed €1 trillion by 2040.
4
5 This cost arises from increased per capita spending on education, healthcare, social security, and justice services for immigrants, combined with lower average tax contributions. In 2016 alone, the net fiscal cost of immigration peaked at €32 billion.
6
7 {{expandable summary="Study: Borderless Welfare State – The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the Netherlands"}}
8 **Source:** *Demo-Demo Publisher (Netherlands)*
9 **Date of Publication:** *2023*
10 **Author(s):** *Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog, Gerrit Kreffer*
11 **Title:** *"Borderless Welfare State: Immigration and the Sustainability of Dutch Public Finances"*
12 **DOI:** N/A
13 **Subject Matter:** *Immigration policy, fiscal sustainability, welfare state, demographic projections*
14
15 {{expandable summary="📊 Key Statistics"}}
16 1. **Total Net Cost (1995–2019):** ~€400 billion
17 2. **Projected Cost by 2040:** Exceeds €1 trillion if trends continue
18 3. **Annual Fiscal Cost in 2016:** €32 billion
19 4. **Second Generation Still Net Negative:** Despite education improvements
20 5. **Cito Score Correlation:** +€20,000 per 1-point increase
21 {{/expandable}}
22
23 {{expandable summary="🔬 Findings"}}
24 1. **By Immigration Motive:**
25
26 Only labour migration yields positive fiscal returns. Other categories—study, family, asylum—are net burdens.
27
28 (% id="immigrationMotive" %)
29 |=Motive|=Labour|=Study|=Family|=Asylum|
30 |Estimate A|125000|-75000|-275000|-475000|
31 |Estimate B|125000|-75000|-275000|-475000|
32
33 {{chart source="xdom" type="bar3D"
34 params="table:immigrationMotive;range:B2-E3;series:columns;
35 legendVisible:true;
36 plotBorderVisible:false;
37 backgroundColor:FFFFFF;
38 plotBackgroundColor:F9F9F9;
39 borderColor:FFFFFF;
40 colors=4E79A7,F28E2B,E15759,76B7B2"
41 title="Fiscal Impact by Immigration Motive (3D View)"
42 width="800" height="360"}}
43 {{/chart}}
44
45 2. **By Region of Origin:**
46
47 Western migrants contribute marginally, while those from Islamic and African regions are highly negative. Japan/NA/Oceania immigrants are highly positive.
48
49 (% id="immigrationRegion" %)
50 |=Region|=Western (avg.)|=Non-Western (avg.)|=Japan/NA/Oceania|=Morocco|=Horn of Africa/Sudan|
51 |Estimate A|25000|-275000|200000|-550000|-600000|
52 |Estimate B|25000|-275000|200000|-550000|-600000|
53
54 {{chart source="xdom" type="bar3D"
55 params="table:immigrationRegion;range:B2-F3;series:columns;
56 legendVisible:true;
57 plotBorderVisible:false;
58 backgroundColor:FFFFFF;
59 plotBackgroundColor:F9F9F9;
60 borderColor:FFFFFF;
61 colors=4E79A7,F28E2B,E15759,76B7B2,59A14F"
62 title="Fiscal Impact by Region of Origin (3D View)"
63 width="800" height="360"}}
64 {{/chart}}
65
66 3. **Demographic Pressure:**
67
68 Maintaining current dependency ratio would require a population of 100 million by 2100.
69
70 {{/expandable}}
71
72 {{expandable summary="📝 Critique & Observations"}}
73 1. **Strengths of the Study:**
74 - Includes second-generation effects
75 - Clear cost modeling by motive & origin
76 - Connects fiscal performance to educational scores
77
78 2. **Limitations:**
79 - No cost breakdown by sector
80 - Limited modeling of non-fiscal outcomes
81
82 3. **Suggestions for Improvement:**
83 - Disaggregate scores by family structure
84 - Add enforcement cost modeling
85 - Compare against control group baselines
86
87 {{/expandable}}
88
89 {{expandable summary="📌 Relevance to Subproject"}}
90 - Demonstrates the structural fiscal unsustainability of mass immigration
91 - Highlights the value of selective, skilled migration with native integration
92 - Useful for countering myths about second-generation economic assimilation
93 {{/expandable}}
94
95 {{expandable summary="🔍 Suggestions for Further Exploration"}}
96 1. Compare these fiscal trends to France and Sweden
97 2. Estimate cultural cohesion loss alongside fiscal cost
98 3. Track welfare dependence by cohort length and generation
99 {{/expandable}}
100
101 {{expandable summary="📄 Download Full Study"}}
102 [[Download Full Study>>attach:SummaryEN.pdf]]
103 {{/expandable}}
104 {{/expandable}}
105

XWiki AI Chat