Immigration and the Fiscal Burden on the Dutch Welfare State
The 2023 report Borderless Welfare State presents a comprehensive analysis of immigration's impact on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, immigration—including the second generation—incurred a net fiscal cost of approximately €400 billion. Projections indicate that, if current patterns continue, this figure could exceed €1 trillion by 2040.
This cost arises from increased per capita spending on education, healthcare, social security, and justice services for immigrants, combined with lower average tax contributions. In 2016 alone, the net fiscal cost of immigration peaked at €32 billion.
Source: *Demo-Demo Publisher (Netherlands)*
Date of Publication: *2023*
Author(s): *Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog, Gerrit Kreffer*
Title: *"Borderless Welfare State: Immigration and the Sustainability of Dutch Public Finances"*
DOI: N/A
Subject Matter: *Immigration policy, fiscal sustainability, welfare state, demographic projections*
- By Immigration Motive:
Only labour migration yields positive fiscal returns. Other categories—study, family, asylum—are net burdens.
| Motive | Labour | Study | Family | Asylum | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate A | 125000 | -75000 | -275000 | -475000 | |
| Estimate B | 125000 | -75000 | -275000 | -475000 |
2. By Region of Origin:
Western migrants contribute marginally, while those from Islamic and African regions are highly negative. Japan/NA/Oceania immigrants are highly positive.
| Region | Western (avg.) | Non-Western (avg.) | Japan/NA/Oceania | Morocco | Horn of Africa/Sudan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate A | 25000 | -275000 | 200000 | -550000 | -600000 | |
| Estimate B | 25000 | -275000 | 200000 | -550000 | -600000 |
3. Demographic Pressure:
Maintaining current dependency ratio would require a population of 100 million by 2100.
