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Borderless Welfare State

Last modified by Ryan C on 2025/03/15 20:02

BORDERLESS WELFARE STATEEdit

The Consequences of Immigration for Public FinancesEdit

Key Findings and Analysis

1. Fiscal Impact of Immigration

  • €400 billion: Total net cost of immigration to the Netherlands from 1995-2019, equivalent to the country's total natural gas revenues since the 1960s.
  • €27 billion annually: Current estimated burden of immigration on Dutch public finances.
  • Projected increase: From €17 billion in 2016 to €50 billion annually if trends continue.

2. Contribution by Immigration Type

  • Labour Immigration: +€125,000 net contribution per person.
  • Study Immigration: -€75,000 net cost per person.
  • Family Immigration: -€275,000 net cost per person.
  • Asylum Immigration: -€475,000 net cost per person.

3. Contribution by Region of Origin

  • Western Immigrants: +€25,000 average contribution.
  • Non-Western Immigrants: -€275,000 per person on average.
  • Highest fiscal costs: Immigrants from Morocco and the Horn of Africa, reaching up to -€600,000 per person.
  • Positive contributors: Immigrants from Japan, North America, and Oceania, averaging +€200,000 per person.

4. Long-Term Population Impact

  • Dutch population would need to grow to 100 million by 2100 to maintain the current welfare state dependency ratio.
  • Immigration is not a sustainable solution to the aging population due to declining fertility rates among immigrant groups.

5. Second-Generation Performance

  • Despite improvements, second-generation immigrants remain a net fiscal burden overall.
  • Cito test scores: Each additional point increase correlates with an improvement of €20,000 in lifetime fiscal contribution.

6. Policy Recommendations

  • A selective immigration policy focusing on high-skilled workers could alleviate fiscal pressure.
  • Without policy reform, the welfare system may become unsustainable.

Implications

  • Immigration trends pose a significant challenge to public finances.
  • Policymakers must consider balancing social inclusivity with economic sustainability.
  • Targeted immigration strategies could ensure positive fiscal contributions.

References

Authors:

  • Jan H. van de Beek
  • Hans Roodenburg
  • Joop Hartog
  • Gerrit W. Kreffer

Published by: Demo-Demo Publisher, Zeist, Netherlands

ISBN: 9789083334820