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Immigration

Version 8.1 by Ryan C on 2025/06/21 10:46
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Immigration and Fiscal Burden on the Welfare State

According to the 2023 study *Borderless Welfare State*, immigration has exerted a substantial long-term cost on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, the net fiscal cost of immigration (including second-generation descendants) was estimated at €400 billion—comparable to all natural gas revenues earned by the Netherlands since the 1960s. If current trends continue, costs could reach €1 trillion by 2040.

# Net Contribution by Immigration Motive

Only labour migrants are shown to provide a net positive contribution to the state treasury. Other categories—study, family, and asylum—result in significant lifetime costs per person, with asylum migration representing the highest burden.

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# Net Contribution by Region of Origin

Western migrants contribute marginally positively, while non-Western migrants impose significant costs. The fiscal burden is particularly high for migrants from Morocco and the Horn of Africa.

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The most positive contributions (+€625,000) come from labour migrants from Japan, North America, and Oceania. The most negative contributions (–€625,000) are associated with asylum migrants from African countries.

These findings challenge the premise that immigration can sustainably support the Dutch welfare system, especially given the demographic trends and declining fertility even among migrant populations.

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