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Immigration

Version 17.1 by Ryan C on 2025/06/21 11:36
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Immigration and the Fiscal Burden on the Dutch Welfare State

The 2023 report Borderless Welfare State presents a comprehensive analysis of immigration's impact on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, immigration—including the second generation—incurred a net fiscal cost of approximately €400 billion. Projections indicate that, if current patterns continue, this figure could exceed €1 trillion by 2040.

This cost arises from increased per capita spending on education, healthcare, social security, and justice services for immigrants, combined with lower average tax contributions. In 2016 alone, the net fiscal cost of immigration peaked at €32 billion.

Study: Borderless Welfare State – The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the Netherlands

Source: *Demo-Demo Publisher (Netherlands)*  
Date of Publication: *2023*  
Author(s): *Jan van de Beek, Hans Roodenburg, Joop Hartog, Gerrit Kreffer*  
Title: *"Borderless Welfare State: Immigration and the Sustainability of Dutch Public Finances"*  
DOI: N/A  
Subject Matter: *Immigration policy, fiscal sustainability, welfare state, demographic projections*

📊 Key Statistics
  1. Total Net Cost (1995–2019): €400 billion  
    2. Projected Cost by 2040: Exceeds €1 trillion if trends continue  
    3. Annual Fiscal Cost in 2016: €32 billion  
    4. Second Generation Still Net Negative: Despite education improvements  
    5. Cito Score Correlation: +€20,000 per 1-point increase  
🔬 Findings
  1. By Immigration Motive:
       Only labour immigration provides positive returns; all other categories result in high per-capita fiscal losses:

   
   |=Motive|=Labour|=Study|=Family|=Asylum|
   |Estimate A|125000|-75000|-275000|-475000|
   |Estimate B|125000|-75000|-275000|-475000|

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2. By Region of Origin:
   Non-Western immigrants (especially from Africa and Islamic regions) impose major costs. Western migrants and those from Japan/NA/Oceania contribute positively:

   
   |=Region|=Western (avg.)|=Non-Western (avg.)|=Japan/NA/Oceania|=Morocco|=Horn of Africa/Sudan|
   |Estimate A|25000|-275000|200000|-550000|-600000|
   |Estimate B|25000|-275000|200000|-550000|-600000|

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3. Demographic Pressure:
   Keeping the dependency ratio stable would require a Dutch population of 100 million by 2100.

📝 Critique & Observations
  1. Strengths of the Study:
       - Comprehensive longitudinal data (1995–2019)
       - Includes second-generation impacts
       - Links fiscal impact to demographic trends and education scores

2. Limitations:
   - No sector-specific breakdowns (e.g. housing vs. justice vs. health)
   - Potential underestimation of intangible costs (e.g. cultural cohesion)
   - Cost of enforcement or return policies not included

3. Suggestions for Improvement:
   - More granular demographic subcategories
   - Disaggregate Cito data by region and family structure
   - Model longer-term societal costs beyond fiscal metrics

📌 Relevance to Subproject

- Strong case study on how mass immigration undermines fiscal sustainability in a high-benefit Western welfare state
- Reveals how family and asylum migration are structurally parasitic to national systems even across generations
- Useful for countering claims that second-generation integration fully offsets first-generation costs

🔍 Suggestions for Further Exploration
  1. Model impact of selective immigration by IQ/education on Dutch budget  
    2. Compare Dutch trends to Sweden, UK, and France  
    3. Evaluate cost of remittances and cultural alienation as externalities  
📄 Download Full Study