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Changes for page Immigration

Last modified by Ryan C on 2025/06/22 18:14

From version 6.1
edited by Ryan C
on 2025/06/21 10:38
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To version 7.1
edited by Ryan C
on 2025/06/21 10:42
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1 -= **BORDERLESS WELFARE STATE** =
1 += Borderless Welfare State =
2 2  
3 +=== Overview ===
4 +This report investigates the fiscal impact of immigration on the Dutch welfare system between 1995 and 2019. According to the study, immigration during this period resulted in a cumulative net cost of €400 billion to the Netherlands. This figure is comparable to the country's total natural gas revenue earned since the 1960s. In recent years, the annual burden of immigration on public finances has been estimated at €27 billion, with projections suggesting this could rise to €50 billion per year by 2040 if current patterns persist.
3 3  
4 -
5 -
6 -
7 -* (((
8 -=== Fiscal Impact of Immigration ===
9 -)))
10 -
11 -€400 billion**: Total net cost of immigration to the Netherlands from **1995-2019**, equivalent to the country's total natural gas revenues since the 1960s.
12 -€27 billion annually: Current estimated burden of immigration on Dutch public finances.
13 -Projected increase: From **€17 billion in 2016** to **€50 billion annually** if trends continue.**
14 -
15 15  === Contribution by Immigration Type ===
7 +The fiscal contribution of migrants varies significantly depending on their migration category. Labour migrants contribute positively, with an average net lifetime contribution of €125,000 per person. In contrast, study migrants cost the state an average of €75,000, family migrants €275,000, and asylum seekers €475,000 per person over their lifetimes.
16 16  
17 -* **Labour Immigration**: **+€125,000** net contribution per person.
18 -* **Study Immigration**: **-€75,000** net cost per person.
19 -* **Family Immigration**: **-€275,000** net cost per person.
20 -* **Asylum Immigration**: **-€475,000** net cost per person.
21 -
22 22  === Contribution by Region of Origin ===
10 +The report also highlights disparities in fiscal impact based on migrants' regions of origin. Western migrants provide a small net gain of approximately €25,000 per person. Non-Western migrants, on the other hand, are associated with an average net cost of €275,000 each. The fiscal burden is especially high among migrants from Morocco and the Horn of Africa, where average costs reach as much as €600,000 per person. By contrast, migrants from Japan, North America, and Oceania contribute positively, averaging €200,000 per person.
23 23  
24 -* **Western Immigrants**: **+€25,000** average contribution.
25 -* **Non-Western Immigrants**: **-€275,000** per person on average.
26 -* Highest fiscal costs: Immigrants from **Morocco and the Horn of Africa**, reaching up to **-€600,000** per person.
27 -* Positive contributors: Immigrants from **Japan, North America, and Oceania**, averaging **+€200,000** per person.
12 +=== Long-Term Demographic Impact ===
13 +The study argues that immigration cannot provide a sustainable solution to the Netherlands’ aging population. To preserve the current dependency ratio, the national population would need to grow to nearly 100 million by the year 2100. However, fertility rates among immigrants tend to converge with those of the native population over time, limiting immigration’s long-term demographic effect.
28 28  
29 -=== Long-Term Population Impact ===
15 +=== Second-Generation Outcomes ===
16 +Second-generation immigrants show improvement in educational attainment and labor participation, but they still represent a net cost to public finances. A notable metric from the study is the correlation between education and fiscal impact: each additional point scored on the Dutch Cito test is linked to a €20,000 increase in projected lifetime fiscal contribution.
30 30  
31 -* Dutch population would need to grow to **100 million by 2100** to maintain the current welfare state dependency ratio.
32 -* Immigration is **not a sustainable solution** to the aging population due to declining fertility rates among immigrant groups.
33 -
34 -=== Second-Generation Performance ===
35 -
36 -* Despite improvements, second-generation immigrants remain a **net fiscal burden** overall.
37 -* **Cito test scores:** Each additional point increase correlates with an improvement of **€20,000** in lifetime fiscal contribution.
38 -
39 39  === Policy Recommendations ===
19 +To reduce the fiscal strain on the welfare system, the report recommends a shift toward a more selective immigration policy, prioritizing high-skilled migrants. Without structural reforms, the continued growth in immigration—particularly from low-contributing groups—could undermine the long-term sustainability of the Dutch welfare state.
40 40  
41 -* A **selective immigration policy** focusing on high-skilled workers could alleviate fiscal pressure.
42 -* Without policy reform, the welfare system may become unsustainable.
21 +=== Authors ===
22 +Jan H. van de Beek
23 +Hans Roodenburg
24 +Joop Hartog
25 +Gerrit W. Kreffer
43 43  
44 -----
27 +=== Publication Details ===
28 +Published by Demo-Demo Publisher, Zeist, Netherlands
29 +ISBN: 9789083334820
45 45  
46 -=== Implications ===
31 +References
32 +\[\[Download full report (PDF)>>/pdfs/borderless\_welfare\_state-2-1.pdf]]
47 47  
48 -* Immigration trends pose a significant challenge to public finances.
49 -* Policymakers must consider balancing social inclusivity with economic sustainability.
50 -* Targeted immigration strategies could ensure positive fiscal contributions.
34 +---
51 51  
52 -----
36 +Let me know if you want this version adapted for Obsidian or XWiki formatting.
53 53  
54 -=== References ===
55 -
56 -* [[Full Report PDF>>/pdfs/borderless_welfare_state-2-1.pdf]]
57 -
58 -----
59 -
60 -=== **Authors:** ===
61 -
62 -* Jan H. van de Beek
63 -* Hans Roodenburg
64 -* Joop Hartog
65 -* Gerrit W. Kreffer
66 -
67 -**Published by:** Demo-Demo Publisher, Zeist, Netherlands
68 -
69 -**ISBN:** 9789083334820