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= **BORDERLESS WELFARE STATE** = |
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-== **The Consequences of Immigration for Public Finances** == |
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-=== //Key Findings and Analysis// === |
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-=== **1. Fiscal Impact of Immigration** === |
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+=== Fiscal Impact of Immigration === |
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* **€400 billion**: Total net cost of immigration to the Netherlands from **1995-2019**, equivalent to the country's total natural gas revenues since the 1960s. |
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* **€27 billion annually**: Current estimated burden of immigration on Dutch public finances. |
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* Projected increase: From **€17 billion in 2016** to **€50 billion annually** if trends continue. |
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-=== **2. Contribution by Immigration Type** === |
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+=== Contribution by Immigration Type === |
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* **Labour Immigration**: **+€125,000** net contribution per person. |
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* **Study Immigration**: **-€75,000** net cost per person. |
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* **Family Immigration**: **-€275,000** net cost per person. |
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* **Asylum Immigration**: **-€475,000** net cost per person. |
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-=== **3. Contribution by Region of Origin** === |
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+=== Contribution by Region of Origin === |
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* **Western Immigrants**: **+€25,000** average contribution. |
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* **Non-Western Immigrants**: **-€275,000** per person on average. |
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* Highest fiscal costs: Immigrants from **Morocco and the Horn of Africa**, reaching up to **-€600,000** per person. |
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* Positive contributors: Immigrants from **Japan, North America, and Oceania**, averaging **+€200,000** per person. |
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-=== **4. Long-Term Population Impact** === |
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+=== Long-Term Population Impact === |
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* Dutch population would need to grow to **100 million by 2100** to maintain the current welfare state dependency ratio. |
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* Immigration is **not a sustainable solution** to the aging population due to declining fertility rates among immigrant groups. |
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-=== **5. Second-Generation Performance** === |
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+=== Second-Generation Performance === |
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* Despite improvements, second-generation immigrants remain a **net fiscal burden** overall. |
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* **Cito test scores:** Each additional point increase correlates with an improvement of **€20,000** in lifetime fiscal contribution. |
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-=== **6. Policy Recommendations** === |
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+=== Policy Recommendations === |
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* A **selective immigration policy** focusing on high-skilled workers could alleviate fiscal pressure. |
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* Without policy reform, the welfare system may become unsustainable. |
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---- |
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-=== **Implications** === |
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+=== Implications === |
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* Immigration trends pose a significant challenge to public finances. |
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* Policymakers must consider balancing social inclusivity with economic sustainability. |
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---- |
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-=== **References** === |
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+=== References === |
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* [[Full Report PDF>>/pdfs/borderless_welfare_state-2-1.pdf]] |
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