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1 -= American Immigration: Origins, Shifts, and Consequences =
1 += Immigration in the United States =
2 2  
3 -This page explores the legislative, demographic, and fiscal history of immigration to the United States—from the Naturalization Act of 1790 to the post-1965 Hart-Celler paradigm shiftintegrating findings from recent economic impact studies and Census projections.
3 +Immigration has played a central role in shaping American demographics, politics, and identity. While the U.S. was founded and populated predominantly by Europeans, successive waves of immigration—both authorized and unauthorizedhave transformed the nation's ethnic, cultural, and fiscal landscape.
4 4  
5 -== Historical Foundation ==
5 +== Early Immigration Policy and Restrictions ==
6 6  
7 -- **1790 Naturalization Act**: Limited citizenship to “free White persons of good character.”
8 -- **1882 Chinese Exclusion Act**: First significant federal restriction targeting a specific ethnic group.
9 -- **1924 Johnson-Reed Act**: Capped immigration by nationality to preserve historic U.S. demographics.
10 -- **1965 Hart-Celler Act**: Abolished quotas; shifted focus to family reunification and skills, radically altering immigration origins.
7 +=== 1790 Naturalization Act ===
8 +The first federal law on naturalization limited U.S. citizenship to "**free White persons of good character**." This defined the racial boundaries of American citizenship at the time, explicitly excluding non-Whites and women from naturalization rights.
11 11  
12 -*Note: The “Give me your tired…” poem was added to the Statue of Liberty in 1903 by Emma Lazarus, 17 years after the statue was gifted. It was not part of the statue’s original meaning.*
10 +=== 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act ===
11 +This act was the **first major federal law** to restrict immigration based on ethnicity. It banned all immigration of Chinese laborers for 10 years and laid the foundation for future exclusionary policies.
13 13  
14 -== Demographic Projections ==
13 +=== 1924 Johnson-Reed Act ===
14 +Established a **quota system** that restricted immigration by national origin. Designed to maintain the "historic demographic composition" of the United States, it heavily favored Northern and Western Europeans and barred Asian immigrants entirely.
15 15  
16 -(% id="populationProjections" %)
17 -|=Scenario|=2060 US Pop.|=Change vs. 2017|=Working-Age Ratio|=Immigrants Needed to Maintain Ratio|
18 -|Current Trend|404 million|+79 million|2.5:1|n/a|
19 -|Stabilization|354 million|+29 million|2.2:1|n/a|
20 -|Maintain Ratio|706 million|+381 million|3.0:1|5× more than projected|
16 +=== 1965 Hart-Celler Act ===
17 +This landmark legislation **abolished national origin quotas** and shifted immigration priorities to **family reunification and skilled labor**. While intended to be moderate, it radically changed the **ethnic makeup** of U.S. immigration, leading to a surge from Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
21 21  
22 -* - **95%** of U.S. population growth by 2060 will come from immigration and their descendants.
23 -* - **Raising the retirement age by two years** has the same effect on dependency ratios as all projected immigration.
19 +== Projected Demographic Impact ==
24 24  
25 -== Fiscal Cost of Immigration ==
21 +Recent projections by Camarota & Zeigler (2022) reveal that **immigration is responsible for nearly 90% of future U.S. population growth**, with long-term consequences for infrastructure, schools, and entitlement programs.
26 26  
23 +(% id="usPopulationProjection" %)
24 +|=Year|=With Immigration|=Without Immigration|
25 +|2020|331|331|
26 +|2030|349|334|
27 +|2040|368|336|
28 +|2050|386|336|
29 +|2060|404|336|
27 27  
31 +{{chart source="xdom" type="bar3D"
32 + params="table:usPopulationProjection;range:B2-C6;series:columns;
33 + legendVisible:true;
34 + plotBorderVisible:false;
35 + backgroundColor:FFFFFF;
36 + plotBackgroundColor:F9F9F9;
37 + borderColor:FFFFFF;
38 + colors=4E79A7,F28E2B"
39 + title="Projected U.S. Population with vs. without Immigration"
40 + width="700" height="350"}}
41 +{{/chart}}
28 28  
43 +== Fiscal, Political, and Social Consequences ==
29 29  
45 +Immigration is no longer just a cultural phenomenon. As shown by multiple empirical studies, it carries **measurable fiscal burdens**, reshapes **voting patterns**, and introduces new demands on state institutions.
30 30  
47 +{{expandable summary="Study: Projecting the Impact of Immigration on the U.S. Population"}}
48 +**Source:** *Center for Immigration Studies*
49 +**Date of Publication:** *2022*
50 +**Author(s):** *Steven Camarota and Karen Zeigler*
51 +**Title:** *"Projecting the Impact of Immigration on the U.S. Population"*
52 +**DOI:** N/A
53 +**Subject Matter:** *Demographics, immigration policy, long-term growth*
54 +
55 +{{expandable summary="📊 Key Statistics"}}
56 +1. **Total U.S. Population in 2060:**
57 + - With immigration: **404 million**
58 + - Without immigration: **336 million**
59 +2. **Share of Growth from Immigration (2020–2060):** **89%**
60 +3. **Projected Immigrant-Origin Share of U.S. Population (2060):** Over **30%**
61 +{{/expandable}}
62 +
63 +{{expandable summary="🔬 Findings"}}
64 +1. **Demographic Surge:**
65 + Immigration accounts for nearly all growth beyond 2030, driven by both new arrivals and their U.S.-born descendants.
66 +
67 +2. **Educational and Economic Strain:**
68 + Most post-1965 immigrants arrive with below-average education, increasing demand on public schools and healthcare.
69 +
70 +3. **Displacement and Fiscal Pressure:**
71 + Native employment sectors face downward wage pressure; fiscal impact is negative or neutral for most groups.
72 +
73 +4. **Voting Trends:**
74 + Immigration shifts the electorate leftward; this is especially pronounced in formerly competitive states like Nevada and Georgia.
75 +{{/expandable}}
76 +
77 +{{expandable summary="📝 Critique & Observations"}}
78 +1. **Strengths of the Study:**
79 + - Long-range population modeling
80 + - Includes second-generation effects
81 + - Clear quantitative comparisons with/without immigration
82 +
83 +2. **Limitations:**
84 + - No fiscal breakdown by ethnicity
85 + - Lacks cultural or cohesion metrics
86 +
87 +3. **Suggestions for Improvement:**
88 + - Track assimilation outcomes
89 + - Project infrastructure demand
90 + - Compare impact by immigrant cohort
91 +{{/expandable}}
92 +
93 +{{expandable summary="📌 Relevance to Subproject"}}
94 +- Supports claims about demographic transformation post-1965
95 +- Shows immigration as the primary driver of future U.S. population growth
96 +- Validates concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability
97 +{{/expandable}}
98 +
99 +{{expandable summary="🔍 Suggestions for Further Exploration"}}
100 +1. Recreate model using state-level projections
101 +2. Include fertility and intermarriage adjustments
102 +3. Compare to EU or Canadian trends
103 +{{/expandable}}
104 +
105 +{{expandable summary="📄 Download Full Study"}}
106 +[[Download Full Study>>attach:Camarota and Zeigler - Projecting the Impact of Immigration on the U.S. Population.pdf]]
107 +{{/expandable}}
108 +{{/expandable}}
109 +
110 +== Related Topics ==
111 +* [[The Great Replacement Theory>>GreatReplacementTheory.WebHome]]
112 +* [[Demographic Engineering in Europe>>Europe.DemographicEngineering]]
113 +* [[Race and Citizenship>>Race.Citizenship]]
114 +
115 +== Footnotes ==
116 +{{footnote}}Camarota, Steven A., and Karen Zeigler. *Projecting the Impact of Immigration on the U.S. Population*, Center for Immigration Studies (2022). Available at: [[https://cis.org/Report/Projecting-Impact-Immigration-US-Population]]{{/footnote}}
117 +
118 +{{footnote}}Naturalization Act of 1790, 1st Cong., 2nd Sess., Ch. 3, 1 Stat. 103{{/footnote}}
119 +
120 +{{footnote}}Hart-Celler Act, Immigration and Nationality Act Amendments of 1965, Pub.L. 89–236{{/footnote}}
121 +
122 +
123 +
31 31  = Immigration and the Fiscal Burden on the Dutch Welfare State =
32 32  
33 33  The 2023 report //Borderless Welfare State// presents a comprehensive analysis of immigration's impact on Dutch public finances. Between 1995 and 2019, immigration—including the second generation—incurred a net fiscal cost of approximately €400 billion. Projections indicate that, if current patterns continue, this figure could exceed €1 trillion by 2040.