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Last modified by Ryan C on 2025/06/22 18:14
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edited by Ryan C
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1 -Borderless Welfare State
1 +Immigration
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1 +# **BORDERLESS WELFARE STATE**
1 1  
3 +## **The Consequences of Immigration for Public Finances**
2 2  
3 -# **BORDERLESS WELFARE STATE**
4 -## **The Consequences of Immigration for Public Finances**
5 -### *Key Findings and Analysis*
5 +### _Key Findings and Analysis_
6 6  
7 -### **1. Fiscal Impact of Immigration**
8 -- **€400 billion**: Total net cost of immigration to the Netherlands from **1995-2019**, equivalent to the country's total natural gas revenues since the 1960s.
9 -- **€27 billion annually**: Current estimated burden of immigration on Dutch public finances.
10 -- Projected increase: From **€17 billion in 2016** to **€50 billion annually** if trends continue.
7 +### **1. Fiscal Impact of Immigration**
11 11  
12 -### **2. Contribution by Immigration Type**
13 -- **Labour Immigration**: **+€125,000** net contribution per person.
14 -- **Study Immigration**: **-€75,000** net cost per person.
15 -- **Family Immigration**: **-€275,000** net cost per person.
16 -- **Asylum Immigration**: **-€475,000** net cost per person.
9 +* **€400 billion**: Total net cost of immigration to the Netherlands from **1995-2019**, equivalent to the country's total natural gas revenues since the 1960s.
10 +* **€27 billion annually**: Current estimated burden of immigration on Dutch public finances.
11 +* Projected increase: From **€17 billion in 2016** to **€50 billion annually** if trends continue.
17 17  
18 -### **3. Contribution by Region of Origin**
19 -- **Western Immigrants**: **+€25,000** average contribution.
20 -- **Non-Western Immigrants**: **-€275,000** per person on average.
21 -- Highest fiscal costs: Immigrants from **Morocco and the Horn of Africa**, reaching up to **-€600,000** per person.
22 -- Positive contributors: Immigrants from **Japan, North America, and Oceania**, averaging **+€200,000** per person.
13 +### **2. Contribution by Immigration Type**
23 23  
24 -### **4. Long-Term Population Impact**
25 -- Dutch population would need to grow to **100 million by 2100** to maintain the current welfare state dependency ratio.
26 -- Immigration is **not a sustainable solution** to the aging population due to declining fertility rates among immigrant groups.
15 +* **Labour Immigration**: **+€125,000** net contribution per person.
16 +* **Study Immigration**: **-€75,000** net cost per person.
17 +* **Family Immigration**: **-€275,000** net cost per person.
18 +* **Asylum Immigration**: **-€475,000** net cost per person.
27 27  
28 -### **5. Second-Generation Performance**
29 -- Despite improvements, second-generation immigrants remain a **net fiscal burden** overall.
30 -- **Cito test scores:** Each additional point increase correlates with an improvement of **€20,000** in lifetime fiscal contribution.
20 +### **3. Contribution by Region of Origin**
31 31  
32 -### **6. Policy Recommendations**
33 -- A **selective immigration policy** focusing on high-skilled workers could alleviate fiscal pressure.
34 -- Without policy reform, the welfare system may become unsustainable.
22 +* **Western Immigrants**: **+€25,000** average contribution.
23 +* **Non-Western Immigrants**: **-€275,000** per person on average.
24 +* Highest fiscal costs: Immigrants from **Morocco and the Horn of Africa**, reaching up to **-€600,000** per person.
25 +* Positive contributors: Immigrants from **Japan, North America, and Oceania**, averaging **+€200,000** per person.
35 35  
27 +### **4. Long-Term Population Impact**
28 +
29 +* Dutch population would need to grow to **100 million by 2100** to maintain the current welfare state dependency ratio.
30 +* Immigration is **not a sustainable solution** to the aging population due to declining fertility rates among immigrant groups.
31 +
32 +### **5. Second-Generation Performance**
33 +
34 +* Despite improvements, second-generation immigrants remain a **net fiscal burden** overall.
35 +* **Cito test scores:** Each additional point increase correlates with an improvement of **€20,000** in lifetime fiscal contribution.
36 +
37 +### **6. Policy Recommendations**
38 +
39 +* A **selective immigration policy** focusing on high-skilled workers could alleviate fiscal pressure.
40 +* Without policy reform, the welfare system may become unsustainable.
41 +
36 36  ---
37 37  
38 -### **Implications**
39 -- Immigration trends pose a significant challenge to public finances.
40 -- Policymakers must consider balancing social inclusivity with economic sustainability.
41 -- Targeted immigration strategies could ensure positive fiscal contributions.
44 +### **Implications**
42 42  
46 +* Immigration trends pose a significant challenge to public finances.
47 +* Policymakers must consider balancing social inclusivity with economic sustainability.
48 +* Targeted immigration strategies could ensure positive fiscal contributions.
49 +
43 43  ---
44 44  
45 -### **References**
46 -- [Full Report PDF](/pdfs/borderless_welfare_state-2-1.pdf)
52 +### **References**
47 47  
54 +* [Full Report PDF](/pdfs/borderless_welfare_state-2-1.pdf)
55 +
48 48  ---
49 49  
50 -### **Authors:**
51 -- Jan H. van de Beek
52 -- Hans Roodenburg
53 -- Joop Hartog
54 -- Gerrit W. Kreffer
58 +### **Authors:**
55 55  
56 -**Published by:** Demo-Demo Publisher, Zeist, Netherlands
60 +* Jan H. van de Beek
61 +* Hans Roodenburg
62 +* Joop Hartog
63 +* Gerrit W. Kreffer
57 57  
58 -**ISBN:** 9789083334820
65 +**Published by:** Demo-Demo Publisher, Zeist, Netherlands
66 +
67 +**ISBN:** 9789083334820